Economic Recovery Models

In order to understand the magnitude of the long-term individual and joint economic impacts of recent natural and technological disasters to recreational and commercial fishing, multi-year baseline economic information about each sector in all five Gulf states are currently being compiled from various secondary sources.

Economic Sectors

Economic Indicators

Perceived impacts – survey of establishments
Number of licenses
Number of establishments
Wages ($)
Employment (job)
Commercial landings (lb) and values ($)
Ex-vessel and wholesale prices ($/lb)
Economic impacts ($, job)

Economic Models

Econometric analysis of these long-term data are conducted to determine the rate of economic recovery and measure the long-term economic damages to these affected economic sectors. It is suggested that these assessments be conducted on a region-wide basis, state by state, and species by species. Illustrative examples on how the time series-data were used in determining the economic recovery paths of the commercial and recreational fishing sectors are shown in Figures 1-3. Using secondary annual data, economic recovery models were developed incorporating the direct economic impacts of Hurricane Katrina and the Gulf of Mexico oil spill to the Mississippi commercial landing values.

The annual Mississippi commercial landing values published by NOAA Fisheries (2017) adjusted for inflation are shown by the bars labeled as “allmsdef”. The line labeled as "nodisaster" plots the annual predicted commercial landing values without disasters (Figure 1). The vertical distances between the “allmsdef” bars and the “nodisaster” line show the direct negative economic impacts of the natural and technological disasters to the Mississippi commercial fishing sector. The bars show marked reductions in landing values after Hurricane Katrina and the Gulf of Mexico oil spill.

Figure 1. Deflated annual commercial landing values of all species in Mississippi and predicted landing values without disasters.

The economic recovery path shown by the line marked “nokatrina” plots the annual predicted commercial landing values without Hurricane Katrina (Figure 2). The vertical distances between the “allmsdef” bars and the “nokatrina” line show the annual direct negative economic impacts of the natural disaster to the Mississippi commercial fishing sector in 2005 and 2006. The economic recovery path suggests that it took at least two years for Mississippi annual commercial landings to return to the pre-Katrina trend.

Figure 2. Deflated annual commercial landing values of all species in Mississippi and predicted landing values without Hurricane Katrina.

The economic recovery path of the annual commercial landing values without the Gulf oil spill is indicated by the line labeled “nospill” (Figure 3). The vertical distances between the “allmsdef” bars and the “nospill” line indicate the annual direct negative economic impacts of the technological disaster to the Mississippi commercial fishing sector starting in 2010. The suggested economic recovery path implies that it might take more than two years for Mississippi annual commercial landing values to the pre-oil spill trend.

Figure 3. Deflated annual commercial landing values of all species in Mississippi and predicted landing values without Gulf oil spill.

Publications:

Posadas, Benedict C. Mississippi recreational and commercial fishing sectors: A decade after Hurricane Katrina. Mississippi-Alabama Sea Grant Consortium. News/Blog, Aug. 21, 2015.

Posadas, Benedict C. 2015. Economic Recovery of Recreational and Commercial Fishing Sectors from Natural and Technological Disasters. Mississippi Alabama Sea Grant Extension Program, Ocean Springs, Mississippi.