Direct Economic Impacts of Disaster and Economic Events on U.S. Commercial and Recreational Fishing and Seafood Markets
Economic Recovery Models
- The Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model of commercial fishing consisted of the following dependent variable:
- Commercial landings (lb/yr),
- Commercial dockside values ($/yr),
- The OLS model assumes that variations in commercial landings can be explained by several measurable economic, environmental, biological, and technical factors.
- The OLS model was estimated using the robust variance procedure of STATA-18.
- The variation inflation factor was calculated to detect the possible presence of multicollinearity.
- The marginal impacts of disaster events were computed using the margins procedure.
- The OLS model of commercial fishing (lb/yr) assumed that the following variables could explain it:
- year,
- real dockside prices ($/lb),
- recession,
- trade war, pandemic, and Gulf natural disasters (1 or 0),
- unemployment rate,
- real diesel prices and per capita disposable income (%), and
- other variables.
- Direct fishery losses occur if current values are lower than the projected values.
The COVID-19 pandemic was declared a national emergency in the United States on March 13, 2020. https://www.ajmc.com/view/a-timeline-of-covid19-developments-in-2020. With the severe disruptions in seafood sales to eating and dining places, producers have to develop ways to sell their products to consumers directly.
U.S. consumers spent an estimated $102.2 billion on fishery products in 2017, including $69.6 billion at restaurants and other foodservice venues, and $32.5 billion at retail. INTRAFISH. US restaurants had sales of $450 billion during the 12 months ending in January. Just over 48 percent of this is from off-premise dinings such as takeout or delivery. INTRAFISH. Globally, restaurants will lose 25 to 30 percent of total restaurant sales compared to 2019. SEAFODSOURCE.
My Economic Outreach on COVID-19 Global Pandemic provides households, businesses, organizations, communities, and government agencies with basic and advanced tools and information involving relevant disaster economic assessments in coastal areas, the entire state, the Gulf of Mexico region, and beyond. They video presentations are available at https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLB0D9oT09EZIQGjeX6QSBg-Lk5QQfeJ6m.