Economic Assessment of the Impacts of the COVID-19 Global Pandemic on U.S. Fish and Shellfish Markets

U.S. commercial Striped Bass Fishery and
Hybrid Striped Bass Aquaculture Production Model, 1950-2019.

The green curve shows combined deflated dockside values and farm-gate values. The red dots show the predicted annual landing and farm-gate values. This model explains 98 percent of the variations in commercial landings and farm-gate values over the past 69 years. The same approach can be used for other U.S. fisheries and farmed species of fish and shellfish. Economic recessions dampen both dockside and farm-gate values. We expect these values to decline significantly due to the global Covid-19 pandemic. Fisheries managers imposed fishing moratoriums in the past when the fishery stocks were below sustainable levels.

The COVID-19 pandemic was declared a national emergency in the United States on March 13, 2020. https://www.ajmc.com/view/a-timeline-of-covid19-developments-in-2020. With the severe disruptions in seafood sales to eating and dining places, producers have to develop ways to sell their products to consumers directly. US consumers spent an estimated $102.2 billion on fishery products in 2017, including $69.6 billion at restaurants and other foodservice venues, and $32.5 billion at retail. INTRAFISH. US restaurants had sales of $450 billion during the 12 months ending in January. Just over 48 percent of this is from off-premise dinings such as takeout or delivery. INTRAFISH. Globally, restaurants will lose 25 to 30 percent of total restaurant sales compared to 2019. SEAFODSOURCE.

My Economic Outreach on COVID-19 Global Pandemic are listed at covid-19.html.