COASTAL AND MARINE ECONOMICS RECOVERY MODELING

ABSTRACT

Dr. Posadas is developing economic models in measuring the joint and individual impacts of man-made and natural disasters, global pandemics and recessions, the U.S.-China trade war, and recent increases in fuel prices on commercial fisheries docskide values.

DISASTER AND ECONOMIC EVENTS

Recent disasters included major hurricanes, the Bonnet Carre Spillway (BCS) openings in 2011 and 2019, and harmful algal blooms. The COVID-19 pandemic was declared a national emergency in the U.S. on Mar.13, 2020. The U.S. economy was in recession from Feb. to June 2020. The U.S.-China trade war started in July 2018 when the US imposed tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese goods. China reciprocated by imposing equivalent tariffs on U.S. exports. Fuel prices rose to more than $4 per gallon in early 2022.

ECONOMIC MODELS

These economic models measure the significant negative direct impacts on marine fisheries.

Marine Economic Recovery Model. Using secondary annual data, economic recovery models were developed incorporating the direct economic impacts on the Mississippi commercial landing values by disaster and economic events:

• Hurricane Katrina in 2005, Gulf of Mexico oil spill in 2010, Bonnet Carre Spillway openings in 2011 and 2019, and harmful algal blooms in 2015 and 2019.
• Economic events including recessions, global pandemic, and rising diesel prices.

The annual Mississippi commercial landing values published by NOAA Fisheries (2024) adjusted for inflation are shown by the bars labeled as “allmsdef”.

The line labeled as “predicted” plots the annual predicted commercial landing values with disasters.

The predictive model explains almost all the variations in the actual landing values and satisfies all the major assumptions in OLS analysis.

Figure 1. Deflated annual commercial landing values of all species in Mississippi and predicted landing values.  

With this econometric model, the direct impacts of diasters and economic events are measured. Direct impacts are measured as the difference between the actual or predicted values and the predicted values without disasters.

Economic Impact Analysis. Further economic impact analysis will estimate the indirect and induced impacts of these disasters on the marine sector using IMPLAN cloud.

The results of the economic impact analysis will measure the total impacts on sales or output, jobs, labor income, value-added, and tax revenues in Coastal Mississippi, and nearby counties and regions.