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COASTAL AND MARINE ECONOMICS RECOVERY MODELING

ABSTRACT

Dr. Posadas is developing economic models to measure the joint and individual impacts of man-made and natural disasters, global pandemics and recessions, trade wars, and recent increases in fuel prices on the seafood and coastal tourism industries. Impact assessments are necessary for supporting disaster applications and management options for states affected by disasters.

DISASTER AND ECONOMIC EVENTS

Recent disasters included major hurricanes, the Bonnet Carre Spillway (BCS) openings in 2011 and 2019, and harmful algal blooms. The COVID-19 pandemic was declared a national emergency in the U.S. on Mar.13, 2020. The U.S. economy was in recession from Feb. to June 2020. The U.S.-China trade war started in July 2018 when the US imposed tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese goods. China reciprocated by imposing equivalent tariffs on U.S. exports. Fuel prices rose to more than $4 per gallon in early 2022.

ECONOMIC MODELS

  1. The SEAFOOD LANDINGS ASSESSMENT MODEL (SLAM) or the JOBS AND INCOME ASSESSMENT MODEL estimates the direct impacts when the current commercial landings and dockside values or number of jobs and total incomes fall below their benchmark values.

  2. The MARINE ECONOMIC RECOVERY MODEL or JOBS AND INCOME RECOVERY MODEL identifies the significant determinants of the variations in the commercial landings and dockside values or the number of jobs and total incomes.

  3. The MULTI-REGIONAL INPUT-OUTPUT (MIRO) analysis estimates the total economic impacts in Mississippi and beyond. The results of the economic impact analysis will measure the total impacts on sales or output, jobs, labor income, value-added, and tax revenues in Coastal Mississippi, other Mississippi counties, other states, and regions.

PUBLICATIONS

  1. Posadas, B.C. 2025. Economic Impacts of Disasters and Economic Events on Commercial Fishery - The Case of Mississippi Blue Crabs. Oceans, 6(1), 3. https://doi.org/10.3390/oceans6010003.

  2. Grice, S.M., M. Taquino, M. Spanbauer, T. Reiling, and B. Posadas. 2024. The Economic and Social Impact of the 2029 Bonnet Carre Spillway Disaster: A Baseline Study. Mississippi State University, National Strategic Planning & Analysis Research Center, Mississippi State, Mississippi. https://www.nsparc.msstate.edu/.

  3. Karunakaran, G., Hegde, S., Engle, C., Boldt, N., Parker, M., Quagrainie, K., Posadas, B.C., Asche, F., Dey, M., Aarattuthodi, S., Roy, L.A., Grice, R., Fong, Q., Schwarz, M. 2024. Economic Contribution of U.S. Aquaculture Farms. Journal of World Aquaculture Society, 55(4).https://doi.org/10.1111/jwas.13091.

  4. Posadas, B.C., E.L. Sparks, A. Rodolfich, R. Bradley, and C. Wessel. 2024. Economic Impacts of Marine Debris Encounters on Commercial Shrimping. Marine Pollution Bulletin, 200 (116038). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2024.116038.

  5. Posadas, B.C. 2023. Economic Contributions of the Mississippi Seafood Industry by Major Species in 2020.  MSU Extension Publication 3954 and Mississippi-Alabama Sea Grant Publication MASGP-23-055. Mississippi State, Mississippi.

  6. Rodolfich, A., Sparks, E.L., Posadas, B.C., and Bradley, R. 2023. Developing a derelict crab trap removal incentive program for commercial shrimpers. Marine Pollution Bulletin.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2022.114392. 

  7. Rodolfich, A., Sparks, E.L., Posadas, B.C., Rodgers, J.C., Skarke, A., Bradley, R., Wessel, C. 2023. The distribution and direct impacts of marine debris on the commercial shrimping industry in the Mississippi Sound. Marine Pollution Bulletin. 186(7):114417. DOI: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2022.114417. 

  8. Posadas, B.C. 2022. Measuring Economic Impacts of Outreach Programs to the Commercial Fishing Industry. Mississippi Agricultural and Forestry Experiment Station Bulletin 1240, Mississippi State, Mississippi.    
    https://www.mafes.msstate.edu/publications/bulletins/b1240.pdf.

  9. Posadas, B.C. 2019. Economic Impacts of Coastal Hazards on Mississippi Commercial Oyster Fishery from 2005 to 2016. Journal of Ocean and Coastal Economics. Journal of Ocean and Coastal Economics, 6(1), 27. https://cbe.miis.edu/joce/vol6/iss1/10/.

  10. Posadas, B.C. and B.K.A. Posadas, Jr. 2017. Economic Impacts of the Opening of the Bonnet Carre Spillway to the Mississippi Oyster Fishery. Journal of Food Distribution Society, 48(1). 42-45. https://www.fdrsinc.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/JFDR_48.1_12_Posadas.pdf.

  11. Posadas, B.C. and B.K.A. Posadas, Jr. 2017. Economic Impacts of the Opening of the Bonnet Carre Spillway to the Mississippi Oyster Fishery. Mississippi State University Extension Service publication 2846- and Mississippi-Alabama Sea Grant publication MASGP-11-041. Mississippi State, Mississippi. https://extension.msstate.edu/publications/economic-impacts-the-opening-the-bonnet-carre-spillway-the-mississippi-oyster-fishery.

VIDEO PRESENTATIONS

  1. Disaster Economics Outreach at YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLB0D9oT09EZLOM9tD9mob3BNh0aaIXwtk.