COASTAL AND MARINE ECONOMICS RECOVERY MODELING
Dr. Posadas is developing three approaches to measuring the joint and individual impacts of man-made and natural disasters, global pandemics and recessions, the U.S.-China trade war, and recent increases in fuel prices on commercial fisheries landings, aquaculture production, county gross sales, dockside and farmgate values.
Recent disasters included major hurricanes, the Bonnet Carre Spillway (BCS) openings in 2011 and 2019, and harmful algal blooms. The COVID-19 pandemic was declared a national emergency in the U.S. on Mar.13, 2020. The U.S. economy was in recession from Feb. to June 2020. The U.S.-China trade war started in July 2018 when the US imposed tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese goods. China reciprocated by imposing equivalent tariffs on U.S. exports. Fuel prices rose to more than $4 per gallon in early 2022.
These models measure the significant negative direct impacts on marine fisheries, aquaculture production, and coastal tourism gross sales. Further economic impact analysis will estimate the indirect and induced impacts of these disasters on marine resources and coastal counties.
Using secondary annual data, economic recovery models were developed incorporating the direct economic impacts of Hurricane Katrina and the Gulf of Mexico oil spill to the Mississippi commercial landing values. The annual Mississippi commercial landing values published by NOAA Fisheries (2022) adjusted for inflation are shown by the bars labeled as “allmsdef”. The line labeled as "predicted" plots the annual predicted commercial landing values with disasters. The predictive model explains almost all the variations in the actual landing values and satisfies all the major assumptions in OLS analysis.
Figure 1. Deflated annual commercial landing values of all species in Mississippi and predicted landing values.
These impact estimates are used by marine organizations, state regulatory agencies, federal agencies, and legislative representatives to document damages of these disasters.