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Economic Recovery Models

In order to understand the magnitude and duration of the individual and joint economic impacts of recent natural, technological and man-made disasters, trade wars, covid-19 global pandemic to recreational and commercial fishing, aquaculture, horticulture and marine sectors, multi-year baseline economic information about each sector in all five Gulf states are currently being compiled from various secondary sources.

Econometric analysis of these long-term data were conducted to determine the rate of economic recovery and measure the long-term economic damages to these affected economic sectors. It is suggested that these assessments be conducted on a region-wide basis, state by state, and species by species.

The annual Mississippi commercial landing values published by NOAA Fisheries (2022) adjusted for inflation are shown by the bars labeled as “allmsdef”. The line labeled as "predicted"plots the annual predicted commercial landing values with disasters. The predictive model explains almost all the variations in the actual landing values and satisfies all the major assumptions in OLS analysis.

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These impact estimates are used by marine organizations, state regulatory agencies, federal agencies, and legislative representatives to document damages of these disasters.